HDE Online Monitor 2026: Where Your Customers Buy Now
Once a year the German Retail Federation (HDE) surveys German e-commerce – and the Online Monitor 2026, published on 3 June 2026, is a map for small sellers: it shows where customers really buy, who is growing and how shopping behaviour is shifting. We have pulled out the key figures – and translated what you can do with them.
The key figures at a glance
Online retail remains the growth driver of the retail sector: for 2026 the HDE expects a nominal revenue increase of 4.3 percent, while brick-and-mortar retail is likely to gain only 1.6 percent. In 2025, online revenue grew by 3.9 percent to around 92.3 billion euros net.
The other core findings: 56.7 percent of all online revenue ran through online marketplaces in 2025 (+5.9 percent year on year). The online share for groceries and drugstore items (FMCG) is still small at 4.9 percent but is growing fastest at 10.4 percent. 65 percent of Germans have already ordered from abroad, 49 percent of them from China – foreign providers now account for almost 11 billion euros of revenue, of which around 4.7 billion goes to Temu and Shein. Online shoppers are getting older: across all age groups their number rose by 1.2 percent in 2025, among the over-55s by 3.1 percent. And: 35 percent of people in Germany already use AI to research products before buying.
Marketplaces dominate – what that means for your channel choice
More than every second online euro flows through a marketplace – and the trend is rising. For small sellers this does not mean giving up their own shop. It means: if you want to grow online, you can hardly avoid marketplaces – as a reach channel alongside your own brand. Which strategy fits you and how marketplace and own shop can be combined is broken down in our big comparison of online store systems. And for those thinking beyond Amazon and eBay: Otto Market has also established itself as a channel for German sellers.
What does this mean for you? Review your channel strategy once a year: where is your target group, where are the fees bearable, where is the effort worth it? Marketplace dominance is a fact – use it instead of ignoring it.
Your customers are getting older – and stay online
The strongest growth in online shoppers comes from the 55+ generation. The reason is simple, as HDE deputy chief executive Stephan Tromp puts it: whoever started shopping online as a teenager does not suddenly stop with age. For you as a seller this means: the older target group is reachable online – and often has a bigger budget. An example: an Etsy seller of personalised gifts no longer has to target only 25 to 40 year olds; gifts for grandchildren, garden accessories or health products increasingly find older buyers directly online. Check font sizes, clear product descriptions and simple payment paths – what is convenient for younger buyers is often decisive for older ones.
Competition from abroad – and the political response
Almost 11 billion euros of revenue now goes to foreign online providers, and nearly half of cross-border buyers shop in China. The HDE calls for stricter rules and tangible penalties – and something is in fact moving: from 1 July 2026 a new EU flat-rate customs duty makes cheap parcels from third countries more expensive. What exactly was decided and how you can benefit is covered in our article on the €3 customs duty from July 2026.
AI is changing product search
That 35 percent of Germans already use AI for purchase research is perhaps the most strategically important number in the monitor. Products are increasingly found not only via classic search but via AI answers and recommendations. So make sure your product data is complete, concrete and machine-readable – AI systems draw their answers from exactly these texts. How to secure your visibility in the new AI search is described in our article on Google AI Mode.
Frequently asked questions
What is the HDE Online Monitor?
An annual study by the German Retail Federation (HDE) on e-commerce in Germany – with figures on revenues, channels, product ranges and shopping behaviour. The 2026 edition was published on 3 June 2026.
Is an own shop still worth it when marketplaces dominate?
Usually yes – as a brand and margin channel. Many sellers run a dual strategy: marketplace for reach, own shop for regular customers and better margins. The important thing is that orders from all channels come together centrally in invoicing and bookkeeping.
How do I reach older online buyers?
With clear, easily readable product pages, understandable descriptions, familiar payment methods and good support. The 55+ generation is the fastest growing group of online buyers.
Do I have to react to AI search?
In the medium term, yes. Well-structured, complete product information helps twice: in classic search and in AI answers. Whoever maintains their data is more likely to be recommended by AI systems too.
Conclusion
The HDE Online Monitor 2026 confirms three trends small sellers can act on: marketplaces are the growth channel, customers are getting older, and AI is shaking up product search. Whoever chooses channels deliberately, makes content readable for all generations and for AI, and keeps the back office under control – for example with a central office solution like Easy Invoice that brings together orders from shop and marketplace – is well positioned for the growth year 2026.
Sources
- Handelsverband Bayern / HDE: HDE Online Monitor 2026 – online retail as growth driver — Official association release (3 June 2026) with all cited figures and assessments.
- HDE: Online Monitor (study page) — Official study page of the German Retail Federation for downloading the Online Monitor.